My Prediction is...

I was recently chatting with a couple of folks who were interested in my perspective about the mobile app market, software security in general, and current server-side technology stacks. I prefaced my opinions with a clear warning that I have been making for a number of years. I thought I'd finally type those opinions up and post them here. So, I may not be Stewart ("I predict that the last mainframe will be unplugged on March 15, 1996") Alsop, but just for laughs...

In the 1980's Digital Equipment Corp (DEC) was on fire. Having working on IBM VM/CMS and DEC TOPS-10/20 & VAX/VMS I couldn't see how DEC could lose.

In the late 80's I had used CP/M & MS-DOS. Then, along came Apple's MacOS. No-brainer. Apple would be the clear personal computer choice from that point forward.

In 1990 I began developing a tele-radiology system for Dr. Jeremy Rubin based on the prototype system he had developed (Mac Apple Pascal) while at Stanford University Medical. Dr. Rubin's plan was to go head-to-head in the tele-radiology market against General Electric Corp and Siemens Medical. I helped Dr. Rubin for almost 3 years in building the ICON Medical Systems solution though I was sure he would eventually lose out to GE and/or Siemens.

In 1994/95, while working at Apple, someone showed me the Netscape Navigator 1.x browser. My response; Big deal what's wrong with Mosaic. By late 1995 I was working at Netscape in Mountain View. My opinion of Netscape; "Big deal. What's wrong with Mosaic?"

In 1996 I went to Sun Microsystems SunSoft to "port" the Java WorkShop to Apple MacOS 7 MRJ. This was Java 1.0.2. I was 100% sure that Java was an interesting toy/language/framework for building applets, but, would be nothing more.

In 1996/97 I did some work for EarthLink in rebuilding their CD mastering system and OS-specific components that built their installer CDs. EarthLink plan was to go head-to-head with AOL and dominate the internet dial-up market. It was obvious EarthLink would be squeezed of the over-saturated internet dial-up market long before they were any threat to AOL.

In 1998 I did some JavaOS development work for both Sun and IBM. My opinion of Java had not changed.

Eventually there was the dot-com bubble. And, who can ever forget Y2K, with all the snake oil that came along with it. Even I could predict how the dot-com and Y2K would end. I've come around a bit on Java. ;) And, I do have a prediction on the future of; mobile, cloud, big data, software security, Ruby/Groovy on Rail or other .NET/J2EE replacements. Click here for my full prognostications.